Category Archives: Uncategorized

When it comes to regulate gun ownership, the ratio of confident predictions to actual research evidence can be distressingly high. A substantial report from the RAND think tank, which I wrote about last spring, spells out this theme in some detail (“The Distressingly Weak Lessons of Research on Gun Control”, March 12, 2018).  The RegulatoryContinue reading “Some Economics of Gun Regulation”

There was a time, less than 20 years ago, when a major concern for the US government was how it would deal with the problems of paying off all government debt, which was projected to happen by about 2010. Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, made it a major point in his “OutlookContinue reading “When Alan Greenspan Worried about Overly Large Budget Surpluses”

The Trump administration imposed tariffs on imported steel back in March 2018, using the implausible excuse that it was necessary for national security (for some countries, the tariffs were later changed to import quotas with similar effect). The results are utterly unsurprising: profits for US steel companies have risen and some jobs for US steelworkersContinue reading “Steel Tariffs: An Utterly Unsurprising Cost/Benefit Calculation”

Economists have long been fascinated by a 1930 essay written by John Maynard Keynes called “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren” (available various places like here and here). Writing in the opening storms of what would become the Great Depression, Keynes maintained that the main issues facing the economy in the long run was an adjustment to ongoing technologicalContinue reading “Macaulay on Economic Progress, 100 Years Before Keynes”

Those of us who write about economics can only nod knowingly at a comment from John Maynard Keynes in 1934, in a a fragment of writing that was probably part of a draft of the preface for the General Theory. He wrote: “[A]n economic writer requires from his reader much goodwill and intelligence and a large measureContinue reading “"You Cannot Convict Your Opponent of Error; You Can Only Convince Him Of It"”

When I think about appropriate thoughts for launching this blog into another calendar year, I often find myself considering the mindset most appropriate for participation in public debate and disagreement. Here are some thoughts along those lines from Ralph Waldo Emerson, in his journal entry for November 8, 1838. “Let me never fall into the vulgarContinue reading “"The Vulgar Mistake of Dreaming that I am Persecuted Whenever I am Contradicted"”

Joan Robinson, in her book Economic Philosophy (1962, pp. 26-28), offers a meditation on how Adam Smith perceived poets and mathematicians– and then on how economists fall in-between. Her argument is that mathematicians have an agreed-upon method for evaluating errors. Poets do not. And economists fall in between–which introduces a personal element into all economic controversies.Continue reading “Joan Robinson on Poets, Mathematicians, Economists, and Adam Smith”

Maybe this image is only relevant those who manage academic journals, like me, and who are thinking about the tasks and hopes for the next year. But it made me (in no particular order) wince and smile. From EBP Memes:

It’s easy to think of reasons why humans might be hard-wired to pay more attention to bad news and downside risks than to good news and encouraging signs. Bad news may require quick reactions in the name of self-preservation; good news may be more likely to arrive in gradual small doses, and doesn’t require anyContinue reading “"The Man who Despairs When Others Hope… is Admired as a Sage"”

During this holiday season, as families and friends seize and make opportunities to gather, one wonders about those who do not feel that they have such a community. It’s easy to find claims that loneliness is rising (for example, here’s a recent Wall Street Journal article on that theme). But last summer the Social CapitalContinue reading “Is Loneliness Rising?”